Minor Geopolitical Thoughts – Daniel Tan
Unsurprising that the UK has banned the Extinction Rebellion, and that Catalonians has begun “Hong Kong” style riots, with 33 arrested in the third night of riots as I write. While the mass media, controlled by groups with an agenda to push, seems to portray themselves standing in an unified line with the rioters in Hong Kong, the reality is politicians and police around the world are preparing themselves against such riots. Expect more to come and harder action taken.
I’ve been listening to Mark Blyth recently and one interesting point he showed was that Trump is uninterested in China and the real opponent he wants to face is the EU. I still don’t really understand why. Maybe it’s because by PPP China is number one and EU is the second, but EU’s economy is more dependent on external deals than China, so PPP is not a good indicator of strength. Comparatively the USA has a better chance at getting EU to kneel than China, and Trump’s actions seems to have been gearing towards it.
To quote the “Garden of Forking Paths”:
The rules of the game forbid the use of the word itself. To eliminate a word completely, to refer to it by means of inept phrases and obvious paraphrases, is perhaps the best way of drawing attention to it.
And what better way to distract people with the EU war than to announce a Chinese trade war.
And now before we can go back to the main topic, we need to take a look at the geography around Turkey.
The reason why I’m mentioning all this is because pulling out support from the Kurds and allowing Turkey to go all out on Syria would create enough chaos to drive refugees to the west into the Mediterranean sea where they would have a safer route to Europe, thus burdening Europe with even more refugees. The Kurds have already let loose ISIS fighters who would be more than willing to return to their homelands, through every nook and cranny. This would create unrest in Europe as they brace themselves to deal with another refugee crisis. By the time the dust settles Trump should have a favourable position in which he can strike the EU with.
It would also makes Brexit alot of sense, because the UK and US are extremely close and it makes sense that the US told them about their future plans and thus also why even though Trump seems to be prepping to strike the EU he still hasn’t done so. Coincidentally the time taken for the refugees to reach the EU, is also the time when Brexit should be completed.
I don’t think it’s wise to assume that the US government don’t know what they are doing. You don’t reach the current level of power the USA has by being dumb or by having dumb people in high positions of power.
This went as expected. Exerpt from Bloomberg:
As part of the deal, China would significantly step up purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities, agree to certain intellectual-property measures and concessions related to financial services and currency, Trump said Friday at the White House. In exchange, the U.S. will delay a tariff increase due next week as the deal is finalized, though new levies scheduled for December haven’t yet been called off.
The trade deal seems to be imbalanced with USA only ceding to delay tariffs, and China promising to buy more agricultural products, plus IP protection for financial services and currency, but it’s a lot more than that. Notice it’s financial services and currency! China is prepping for the Yuan to take over the Dollar, or at least share its hegemony on the world stage, and this would allow US companies to use the Yuan in confidence.
It follows the pattern of China is partnering with Russia to make energy exports be conducted in Yuan, and African infrastructure projects, done in Yuan. It seems that the USA has finally ceded to China in its place in the world. For context, the tariffs the USA has placed on the EU is about 7.5 billion, but the tariffs on China is more than 112 billion. The result? USA GDP growth, in dropping from 2% to 1% while China drops 6.5% to 5.5%. The Chinese economy is mostly self sufficient, with it’s manufacturing sector being the most complete compared to any country in the world.
The trade war has been going on for 1.5 years now, and that’s the final result. While it’s arguable if the severe drop in USA or China GDP growth is actually attributable to the trade war (the USA is entering the periodic recession period while China is cleaning up inefficiencies in its overheated economy), the fact is that the USA economy is more dependent on external forces than China’s.
This should strike a huge blow to the Taiwanese presidential elections as well since China will only proceed with a position of immense henceforth.