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Trump Supporters Are More Likely to Vote Than Trump Opponents

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A float dedicated to President Donald Trump, pictured after a “Demand Free Speech” rally on Freedom Plaza on July 6th, 2019, in Washington, D.C.

Given the party’s recent recapture of the House of Representatives, Democrats are feeling optimistic about their chances of denying Donald Trump a second term as president. But new research indicates they still face a huge problem: Getting their voters to the polls.

A study based on recently released data finds that, in the 2018 mid-terms, Trump supporters were more likely to cast a vote than Trump opponents. This disparity “softened the negative effect of Trump‘s weak approval polls on Republican candidate vote totals,” reports Fordham University political scientist Jeffrey Cohen.

That suggests the question of whether Trump gets thrown out could hinge on turnout.

In the journal Presidential Studies Quarterly, Cohen analyzed data from the American National Election Studies’ 2018 Pilot Study. Completed by 2,500 American adults, it featured a variety of politics- and policy-related questions, including the respondents’ overall feelings about Trump; whether they voted in Senate, House of Representatives, and/or gubernatorial elections in 2018; and if so, for which party’s candidate.

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