Will there be a War on Iran? – Omar Gomaa – Medium
The last few weeks have seen a series of increased tensions between the United States and Iran, according to Politico, the US deployed “the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group and the bomber task force, which were already announced and this represented a major increase in U.S. air and naval power in the Middle East”, and Iran maintaining its same defying and threatening tone that we have been accustomed to, “An Iranian military commander said on Thursday that Donald Trump should address any threats against Tehran directly to him, and mocked the US president as using the language of “night clubs and gambling halls”. Soleimani’s message was a warning to the US to stop threatening Iran with war or risk exposing itself to an Iranian response.”
“We are near you, where you can’t even imagine … Come. We are ready. If you begin the war, we will end the war,” Tasnim news agency quoted Soleimani as saying. Also, worth mentioning that Iran announced four-fold increase in uranium enrichment, and lastly, Donald Trump the American president’s has threatened to annihilate Iran and warned it not to threat the US.
The reasons behind the increased tensions may be attributed to two things, the cancellation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), AKA the Nuclear deal which guaranteed to halt Iranian ambitions to acquire nuclear capabilities. Secondly, the continued Iranian use of rebels and gangs to do its bidding in the Middle East, which by the simplest terms has produced chaos and disruption, when we look at the Houthis rebels in Yemen, whom have caused much destruction and dismay in the Middle Eastern country, all on behalf of Iran. Although the Nuclear deal asserted that Iran does not possess nuclear capabilities, that is not enough, even if it is a priority, the fact is that Iran uses the lift of sanctions provided by the nuclear deal and throws its economic resources to back proxy wars in the Middle East, examples: Yemen and Syria, and therefore extend their influence and fulfill its ambitions in the region.
Possibility of War
There is a high possibility of confrontation in the region, the pentagon assured that U.S. military deployment has deterred attacks, according to Reuters, “Acting U.S. Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan said on Tuesday after briefing lawmakers on the threat from Iran that the United States had deterred possible attacks by deploying forces to the region.”
“We have deterred attacks based on our reposturing of assets — deterred attacks against American forces. Our biggest focus at this point is to prevent Iranian miscalculation,” Shanahan told reporters on Capitol Hill.
Iran’s Supreme Leader says there will be no war with U.S. according to Reuters, “There won’t be any war. The Iranian nation has chosen the path of resistance,” Khamenei was cited as saying by the state media. “We don’t seek a war, and they don’t either. They know it’s not in their interests.”
However the situation is still uncertain, with neither side willing to back down, especially in their rhetoric to the media. Negotiations would save the Iranian regime from collapse, Iran should think this through and sit on the negotiation table and prevent more chaos to an already volatile region.