Democrats’ dreams of taking control of state government are dead, for now.
Democrats hoped Tuesday’s special election could finally give them control of the state’s upper chamber — and full control of the state government. But one New York state senator determined the balance of power in Albany before the polls even closed.
Victories in two state Senate districts — one in a deep blue area, the other in a swing suburban district — would have handed Democrats a 32-31 numerical majority in the 63-seat Senate. But real power depended on the decision of a rogue Democratic state senator, Simcha Felder.
Felder is a Democrat who caucuses with the Republicans — and there was some speculation that if Democrats won those two open Senate seats, he would return to the fold, transforming the party’s numerical majority into an actual one.
But Felder said Tuesday he would remain a Democrat in name, but continue caucusing with the Republicans, no matter the election results, at least through this legislative term, which ends mid-June.
“I believe it is my obligation to prevent an unprecedented and uncertain late-session political battle that will only hurt my constituents and New Yorkers,” Felder said in a statement, according to the New York Times. “Political gamesmanship must not be allowed to jeopardize the leadership, committee structure and staff of the New York State Senate and push this institution into turmoil.”
Felder’s announcement shatters Democratic hopes of retaking the state Senate, something that’s eluded them for all but two years since World War II. If Democrats won on Tuesday, and Felder reunited with Democrats, the party might have taken control of the state government, with an overwhelming Democratic majority in the Assembly and a Democratic governor, Andrew Cuomo. (Nine seats in the overwhelmingly Democratic state Assembly are also up for grabs, but the outcomes won’t significantly alter the lower chamber’s makeup.)
Instead, Felder’s decision to stay with the Republicans puts a truly blue New York frustratingly out of reach for progressives.
Meet Simcha Felder, the rogue Democratic who just spoiled the special elections
Felder was one of several rogue Democrats who for years played a weird game of caucusing with the GOP, leaving Democrats in the minority and stymieing opportunities to bring some legislation to the floor.
Some, like Felder, had distinct ideological differences. But the overwhelming reason for this strange marriage was power — being in the minority is not a fun place to be as a politician. It also came with some pretty good perks for the Democratic breakaways, including higher salaries.
But a recent deal with breakaway Democrats in the Independent Democratic Conference — brokered with help from Cuomo — brought most of the runaways back into the mainline fold. All of them, that is, except Felder.
Felder said he would wait until after the April 24 election to make his decision — but he preempted any election night celebrations by announcing his decision Tuesday afternoon.
New York’s 37th Senate District just got a little less pivotal
Two Senate vacancies are up at the polls today. One is in the 32nd District, which covers a large swath of the Bronx and heavily leans Democratic. Luis Sepulveda, a Democratic Assembly member from the Bronx, is practically guaranteed to win.
So all eyes were on the 37th District, a swing district which covers part of Westchester County, suburbs north of New York City. The race pits Democrat Shelley Mayer, a state Assembly member, against Republican Julie Killian, a member of a local city council who ran unsuccessfully for state Senate in 2016 against the Democratic incumbent.
If Killian won, Republicans would have maintained the majority outright, and Felder wouldn’t have budged. But there were signs that Felder would reunite with the Democrats if Mayer won the race. As Doug Muzzio, professor of political science at Baruch College, told Vox, Felder was the ultimate “wild card.”
Democrats would have eagerly welcome Felder back without question, and would have offered him some very favorable to concessions to secure that loyalty.
Felder also had something to gain by returning to the Democratic fold. The party is in a favorable position to take full control of the state Senate November, when everyone is up for reelection. Any Democratic majority will be slim — but it might be just big enough that the party wouldn’t have needed Felder in the same way.
But Felder is a savvy politician, and effectively delivering the Republicans the majority probably won’t go unrewarded. It’s possible he’s also returning a big favor. As WXXI, Rochester’s public radio points out, Republicans helped ease restrictions on curriculum for Yeshiva religious schools — a key issue for Felder — in the recent state budget. (Whether Felder’s announcement will depress an already low turnout — polls close at 9 pm — and tamp down Democratic enthusiasm is another question entirely.)
Still, at least one person with a lot of sway in Albany says it’s not over: Andrew Cuomo. A spokesperson for the governor said after Felder’s announcement: “The Governor’s position is clear: the Democrats must unify to take back the majority. This conversation will continue in the morning.”
It’s not clear if there’s a legitimate opening for the Democrats, or Cuomo’s just trying to give himself cover in his primary race against Cynthia Nixon. The Independent Democratic Conference formed shortly after 2010, and the governor’s critics said the Republican-controlled state Senate gave him cover to govern down the middle. But a surprising challenge from Nixon in the gubernatorial primary suddenly made Democratic unity a top priority for Cuomo.
Felder’s decision won’t mean much in practical terms. The Albany legislative session is over in about two months. But if the Democrats win Tuesday, they are in an even better position to retake the state Senate in November — with or without Felder. Felder does have a long-shot primary Democratic challenger, but more likely than him losing is that his continued defection might motivate progressives across the state.