A capital cannot secede, but Brexit and the Trump admin give regional and global trends of decades a new impetus.
Long before Brexit, investments had been flowing out of London and pouring into the Asian markets.
Big financial players are reportedly pulling their money out of the US as well and streaming it, where else, into China.
Jobs and transactions will be lost but that has more to do with the changing importance of markets around the world than with a provincial hiccup. Populations in the imperial heartlands will just have to brace for a final stage of restructure far more fast and furious than it would’ve been.
Wall Street is primed for the biggest gains after Brexit. The European financial centres will get their pecking too but the lion’s share will go to American players, naturally.
A transitional deal with London doesn’t automatically mean a deal with the rest of Brexitannia. To be able to strike a transitional deal with Europe London could well need more control over its economy.
An increased need for anti-terror resources could also boost the sovereignty of the London Authority.
On its part, Europe would prefer a deal with London rather than the whole of Brexitannia. Why should Europe take on burdens even the state is shedding.
All recent policy suggests that the government intends to cleanse its capital from the growing local underclass.
Off the undesirables get stowed away in the Norf, a no-man’s land between London and the South-East and Scotland. Ken Loach’s ‘I, Daniel Blake’ portrays a typical such journey.
Fewer mouths for the state to feed, more money left for business. Food banks will take care of the social fabric — it really is heartening.
Lonon is a business. The biggest business Brexitannia has. The government, any government, will shield it from the economic impact. If it looks now that London is tearing apart from the rest of the country, after Brexit it will be propelled into the stratosphere.
Legislative powers repatriated from Brussels are going into the central government, not the devolved administrations. They’re not even going to the legislature but straight into the hands of the executive.
Scotland is bound to get mad and bound to get its independence. The only thing that stymied it last time was that the Scottish political establishment was willing to compromise for devo-max.
That worked out well, not. Next time round they’ll be truly over and done with Westminster. The populace is.
Although it’s likely that Northern Ireland will break loose first for a host of historical reasons.
Frankly, England has nothing to sell to the but for London’s financial services and probably sights. Whatever little trade in automobile parts it does with Europe is coming to an end.
Its arms’ industry plays second fiddle to the US military-industrial complex. With a quickie trade deal between Trumpland and Brexitannia, as promised by teh designated straw-man, one likely to come in the form of a NAFTA enlargement, it will be subsumed.
Slowly, or not so slowly, the Norf will realise they don’t feature in any national growth plans. With its super-mayors vying for reelection, populist polices like autonomy, devolution, even independence will gather pace. More plebiscites will come. Why not London next?
This whole scenario might take twenty years to play out, but the tide has turned. It’s not as much that London will secede but that it will leave the rest of Brexitannia behind. Further behind, that is.
The political class knows it must hold onto London, at any cost. The cost will be the country. The government knows that Brexitannia has moved closer to the epicentre of the seismic shifts in the American political system.
Fifteen states and Washington DC are suing Trump for attempting to end DACA. To sue the Trump administration is to sue the federal government. Before that, four states had sued the government for the tribal ban on Muslims.
California holds out against federal policy on immigration and climate change. Its partenrship with China in developing technology around green power and also biotech will certainly result in new policy bodies.
The political fragmentation of the USA is under way. Brexitannia could be the testing ground for whatever new system emerges. It’s a protectorate after all, the empire can do as it pleases with it.
A London secession scenario during and after Brexit. was originally published in PoliticsMeansPolitics.com | The new platform for citizen response. on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.